Preseason Rankings
Florida International
Conference USA
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#226
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#135
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#255
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 32.1% 40.1% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.6% 62.4% 45.1%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 7.4% 15.4%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.4
Quad 20.5 - 3.30.6 - 4.7
Quad 33.6 - 7.04.2 - 11.7
Quad 47.4 - 3.711.6 - 15.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-66 67%    
  Nov 16, 2018 267   @ Fordham W 68-66 47%    
  Nov 17, 2018 229   Columbia W 77-76 51%    
  Nov 18, 2018 329   Youngstown St. W 79-72 74%    
  Nov 28, 2018 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 74-77 31%    
  Dec 01, 2018 94   @ Arkansas L 70-79 14%    
  Dec 13, 2018 213   North Florida L 82-83 57%    
  Dec 18, 2018 250   South Florida W 68-67 64%    
  Dec 30, 2018 142   @ Ohio L 72-77 24%    
  Jan 03, 2019 157   @ Middle Tennessee L 66-70 27%    
  Jan 05, 2019 187   @ UAB L 69-72 32%    
  Jan 10, 2019 301   Charlotte W 78-74 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 102   Old Dominion L 62-70 35%    
  Jan 17, 2019 60   @ Western Kentucky L 68-81 9%    
  Jan 19, 2019 99   @ Marshall L 77-85 18%    
  Jan 23, 2019 266   @ Florida Atlantic W 72-70 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 266   Florida Atlantic W 72-70 66%    
  Jan 31, 2019 163   Southern Miss L 68-72 47%    
  Feb 02, 2019 141   Louisiana Tech L 68-74 42%    
  Feb 07, 2019 158   @ Texas San Antonio L 74-78 27%    
  Feb 09, 2019 249   @ UTEP W 70-69 44%    
  Feb 14, 2019 323   Rice W 74-68 77%    
  Feb 16, 2019 132   North Texas L 68-74 39%    
  Feb 23, 2019 266   @ Florida Atlantic W 72-70 47%    
  Mar 03, 2019 141   Louisiana Tech L 68-74 41%    
  Mar 06, 2019 99   @ Marshall L 77-85 17%    
  Mar 09, 2019 132   North Texas L 68-74 39%    
Projected Record 11.6 - 15.4 7.3 - 10.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 4.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.0 4.2 1.1 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.3 1.2 0.1 10.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.2 1.4 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.2 1.3 3.4 3.2 1.2 0.1 9.4 13th
14th 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.0 14th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.4 6.2 8.5 10.8 11.5 11.9 12.0 9.8 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.8 1.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 31.8% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-1 9.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.0%
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.6% 11.4% 8.9% 2.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.8%
13-1 2.8% 7.9% 7.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
12-2 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9
11-3 6.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
10-4 8.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.1
9-5 9.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
8-6 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.9
7-7 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.9
6-8 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.4
5-9 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
4-10 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-11 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-12 3.4% 3.4
1-13 1.5% 1.5
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%